OIL WORLD

Soybean Crush Up Sharply in 2025/26

Latest NOPA numbers indicate total US soybean crushings of 18.2 Mn T in Sept/Nov 2025, 1.5 Mn T or 9% above a year earlier....However, soybean inspections during the most recent two weeks plummeted to just 1.8 Mn T from 3.4 Mn T a year earlier. This is less than expected and will, most likely, require additional downward revisions in the export estimate for the full month of December....

Lower Production Growth Contrast With Bigger Demand Increase in 2025/26

Bumper South American Soybean Crop Likely to Exert Price Pressure

Year-on-year growth in world soya meal production expected to slow to 5.3 Mn T in 2025/26 vs. 20.4 Mn T last season....

Prices of most major oilmeals rallied by 10-15% in November, raising the OIL WORLD price index to a 14-month high of 117 points compared to 103 in Oct and 108 in Nov 2024. But is this start of a new price trend or is the market set for downward correction? 
Setting the political uncertainties – primarily the US/China trade conflict and its impact on the market sentiment on the CBOT – aside, the recent rally in soya meal prices of soya meal was not justified by the fundamentals. On the contrary, fundamentals of soybean market (primarily a meal seed) and vegetable oils are currently diverging. .... More details in the MONTHLY....

German Rape Oil Usage Set to Increase in 2026

German rapeseed oil usage is expected to rise in 2026, following yesterday’s decision of the German government to end double counting for advanced biofuel feedstock, viz. used/waste oils, as part of the national biofuel guidelines under the RED III directive of the European Commission....

Malaysian Palm Oil Yields Improving in 2025

Palm oil production is increasing contra-seasonally in Oct/Dec 2025 to an estimated at 5.7 Mn T, about 0.8 Mn T or 16% above a year earlier....Average palm oil yields turned out much better than initially expected. The most important reason for the substantially larger volumes of fruit bunches delivered to the mills is to be seen in a considerable improvement in the availability of foreign labour at the plantations in Malaysia....

Record World Production of Linseed Likely to Exert Price Pressure

.....in the Second Half of the 2025/26 Season...

Further increase in EU import duties on Russian linseed will change trade flows, curbing EU crush margins. 

A recovery in the cultivated area and partly exceptionally high yields (primarily in Canada) have boosted world production of linseed & flaxseed to a new high of 3.8 Mn T in 2025/26, up 0.6 Mn T from a year earlier and significantly above our initial forecast this summer....This year’s exceptionally high Canadian yields will also play a pivotal role for price-making in coming weeks, allowing producers to “buy back” market share via competitive prices. This is primarily true in the European Union.. Latest OIL WORLD supply & demand estimates in WEEKLY report....

Global Output Revised Downward

Heat and crop losses this summer in many parts of Spain and deteriorating crop prospects have triggered an increase of olive oil prices by approximately 25% since end-July 2025. 

We have a made a downward revision in our world production estimate of olive oil to 3.4 Mn T this season. This is 120 Thd T below our previous estimate and approximately 100 Thd T below last season’s performance...