Canola Dsiposals Set to Decline

Escalating trade disputes with Canada’s two largest trading partner, viz. China and the US, will keep canola disposals sharply below potential in Mar/July 2025. China’s announcement of 100% import duties on Canadian canola oil and meal from March 20 onward pushed nearby canola futures (May position) to a three-month low....

While relatively tight world export supplies of vegetable oils should make it rather easy to revive import demand for Canadian canola oil in countries other than China and the US in coming months, the situation in meal is more complex....

 

Imports Heavily Tilted From Palm to Seed Oils This Season

Palm oil stocks in India plunged by roughly 0.8 Mn T in the past three months to less than 1.2 Mn T, according to OIL WORLD estimates. Indian palm oil imports were clearly lower than consumption of late, enforcing a depletion of inventories...

The recent slowdown of veg. oil imports has been cushioned by relatively large vegetable oil stocks accumulated in India by the end of November 2024, which could be reduced since. However, the rapid depletion of stocks will necessitate more active purchases soon...

Net Imports of Oils & Fats Down Sharply

The severe decline in US biodiesel production resulted in an at least temporary oversupply of soya oil on the domestic demand, reducing US prices to and even partly below the world market. While this is raising demand for US soya oil it also reduces margins for US importers, which will only be reflected in the official trade numbers with a time lag...

Combined US net imports of 17 oils & fats and tallow plummeted to only 0.56 Mn T in Jan (down 36% from a year earlier)....

 

Palm Oil Production Problems

Higher yields and acreage expansion are needed to raise world palm oil production sufficiently in the years ahead. The loss of growth dynamics in palm oil output - primarily during the past five years - has greatly impacted global markets of all oils & fats...

The average annual growth in world palm oil production slowed down significantly to only 0.6% in the five years ended 2024 compared with an average increase of 5.3% in the five years until 2019... More details in the WEEKLY...

Continuing Woes in Palm Oil Are Keeping World Supplies Still Tight

Dependence on soya oil increases further. Suspension of admixture increase in Brazil improves soya oil export supplies somewhat.....

Prices of palm oil and the major seed oils increased sharply during the past 12 months. The price averages registered in Oct/Feb 2024/25 were up 33–37% on the year for crude and refined palm oils, by 17-19% for rapeseed oil in Europe and  soya oil in South America and more than 30% for sunflower oil. This contrasted with a 30% decline of gas oil futures on average of Oct/Jan. These developments have prompted different political reactions .... Read about the latest OIL WORLD supply & demand estimates in the MONTHLY...

Argentine Crop Scare Providing Support

Record soybean crushings and attractive prices boosted world soya meal exports by 4.9 Mn T in Oct/Jan 2024/25  

Comparatively low soya meal prices and partly insufficient supplies of other feed ingredients boosted world soya meal consumption in the first four months of the 2024/25 season. We tentatively forecast total soya meal usage to reach a record 275.3 Mn T this season ... More details in the MONTHLY...

Palm Oil Has Lost Market Share Due to Insufficient Growth in Production

Palm oil has lost market share due to insufficient growth in production. The average annual growth of world palm oil production slowed significantly to only 0.6% in the five years ended 2024 compared with an average increase of 5.3% per annum in the five years until 2019.

Palm oil is still by far the most important vegetable oil but its share of world production of 17 oils & fats dropped from 32% to 30% in the five years to 2024. ....