Feedstock Shortages Will Limit Biodiesel Production in 2024/25

The growth in biodiesel production and consequently also in the required feedstock volumes has become unsustainable of late. In 2024/25 the discrepancy between ambitious national biofuel targets and tightening feedstock supplies is seen widening. This dilemma can probably be solved only by a proactive downward adjustment of admixture mandates and/or an underfulfillment of them via market forces...

Admixture targets can probably not be fulfilled in the USA, Indonesia and Brazil. Growth in world production of biodiesel/HVO in 2025 will be curbed below the increase of 4.1 Mn T shaping up this year....Latest OIL WORLD estimates in the Weekly of Oct 11...

Palm Oil Exports Up Sharply in September

Malaysia boosted palm oil exports by 1.0 Mn T from a year earlier to 4.77 Mn T in July/Sept 2024, thereby raising its share of world exports to at least 36% from 27% both one and two years earlier....

Total Malaysian palm oil stocks recovered to 2.01 Mn T as of end-Sept, but the year-on-year decline widened to 0.3 Mn T. Stocks are seen declining seasonally from now on until about March next year....

Production Deficit Developing in 2024/25

World production of 17 oils and fats is tentatively estimated at 263.4 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2024/25. This implies a year-on-year increase of only 2.9 Mn T, reflecting a significant slowdown from the preceding two seasons....Furthermore, the current season starts with the burden of total stocks of oils and fats being an estimated 1.3 Mn T lower than a year ago as of early October 2024, reflecting sizable reductions primarily in India and Malaysia....

Shortages in sunflower oil and rapeseed oil to be compensated only partly by soya oil and palm oil. Demand-rationing will be inevitable in energy and food sectors.....

Ample Soybean Supplies Contrast with Tightness in Sunseed & Rapeseed

World supplies of soybeans are ample and currently estimated to rise sharply by 38 Mn T from a year earlier to almost 530 Mn T in 2024/25, with opening stocks up 10 and production up 28 Mn T ...

Combined world production of sunflower and rapeseed oils is currently estimated to decline by 3.7 Mn T on the year in Oct/Sept 2024/25. Despite the prospective ample world soybean supplies, soybean crushings cannot be raised sufficiently to offset the production losses in these two vegetable oils....

Ample World Supplies of Groundnuts Shaping Up in 2025

A further increase in groundnut production by another 1.0 Mn T is currently anticipated for next season. We peg global production at a record 35.6 Mn T (shelled basis) in 2024/25....In 2024, large crops in the USA, Argentina and India partly offset by shortage in Brazil....

Shortage of Rapeseed & Sunseed Likely to Curb EU Oilseed Crushings in 2024/25

EU rapeseed crushings are forecast to decline by at least 1.3-1.4 Mn T in July/June 2024/25, with most of the required rationing likely to occur in Jan/June 2025. This year’s crop failure in the Black Sea region has slashed sunflowerseed supplies for EU crushers in 2024/25. We tentatively forecast EU sunseed crushings to decline by ...Mn T in July/June 2024/25, widening the setback of the two softseeds to ....

This contrasts with ample world soybean supplies, which is likely to raise EU soybean crushings in July/June 2024/25....

 

Duty Hike Pushing Indian Veg Oil Prices Higher

Domestic vegetable oil prices have risen sizably since the steep increase of import duties on Sept 13....On Sept 17, prices of soya oil, sunflower oil and RBD palm olein were 11–13% higher than on Friday on the Indian wholesale market. However, the price increase registered during the past two days reflects the impact of the higher duties only partly...