Demand Rationing Has Occurred Only Partly So Far

Tightening supplies increasingly felt in sunflower oil market. Great uncertainty surrounding US biodiesel production....

Recent upward revisions in world production of soya oil contrasted with losses in sunflower oil. In sum, the anticipated growth in world production of 8 major vegetable oils is expected to be down sharply from preceding years....World consumption of the eight major vegetable oils is forecast to increase by only 2.5 Mn T this season, against 8.8 Mn T in 2023/24. The by far biggest increase will occur in soya oil, partly offset by sizable reductions shaping up in consumption of sunflower oil and rapeseed oil.... Latest OIL WORLD supply & demand estimates in the MONTHLY...

Argentine Crop Scare Providing Support

But world production of soya meal is still likely to exceed demand in Jan/Sept 2025, limiting any price increases.

Deteriorating Argentine crop conditions were the major reason for the recovery in soybean and soya meal prices in cash and futures markets in the week to Jan 23.The situation bears watching but there is still time for crop conditions to improve.....

World production of 7 other major oilmeals is likely to fall by 2.7 Mn T or 2-3% this season. Most of the setback is likely to occur in sunflower meal and rapeseed meal ... More details in the MONTHLY...

Output of Biodiesel/HVO up Sharply in Dec

Production of HVO & biodiesel skyrocketed to more than 1.6 Mn T in Dec. Many producers apparently aimed at maximizing output ahead of the expiration of the blenders tax credit at the end of Dec....Last year's total production thus increased by 2.35 Mn T to as much as 16.0 Mn T, exclusively on account of HVO...

 

Import Demand for Rapeseed to Stay Elevated in 2025/26

European rapeseed production is likely to stay below potential in 2025, following lower than initially expected winter rapeseed plantings in key producing countries....

We tentatively forecast  EU-27 rapeseed production to recover to 19.1 Mn T in 2025, up 2.2 Mn T from a year earlier but still trailing the crops of 20.2 Mn T and 19.6 Mn T in the preceding two seasons....

 

Exports Diminish to 8-Year Low

World exports of palm oil declined by approximately 1.0 Mn T on the year to 12.7 Mn T in Sept/Nov 2024, an 8-year low. Indonesian exports alone plummeted by 1.3 Mn T, while Thailand and Central America recorded more moderate reductions, which were only partly offset by higher shipments from Malaysia.

Consumers in importing countries switched to more attractively priced other edible oils, primarily soya oil, in response to the appreciation of prices and reduced export supplies of palm oil...

Biodiesel Production is Seen Losing Momentum in 2025

 Growth in world production of biodiesel/HVO is seen diminishing to a 5-year low in 2025. World production is seen reaching 64.1 Mn T in Jan/Dec 2024, up 5.0 Mn T on the year ...In the next 12 months the further increase of admixture and production of biodiesel/HVO scheduled in many countries will be increasingly difficult to achieve owing to aggravating feedstock shortages. The competition for vegetable oils and animal fats between users in the energy, food and other sectors is bound to intensify....

Olive Oil Prices Falling to 2-Year Low

Prices were in free fall during the past 10 weeks and established new 2-year lows. In Spain, extra virgin quality was quoted at US-$ 4138, 24% below three weeks earlier and even 56% below a year earlier...

World production of olive oil is now recovering noticeably thanks to improved weather and much better yields in Spain, Tunisia and Türkiye....