OIL WORLD

S. America Boosting Exports to China

Soybean trade flows to China are currently unusually large and up sharply from last year, although none have been shipped from the US. Soybean exports of 5 countries to China were boosted by 2.8 Mn T or 42% on the year in August and by 3.1 Mn T or 54% in September.  

Total Chinese soybean imports will therefore be sufficiently large in the next 2-3 months, even without US soybeans...

World Production Declining This Year

During the past three months our estimates of biodiesel/HVO production have been scaled back for the USA and the EU-27 but increased for Indonesia and Brazil. The net effect is a minor downward revision of our global production estimate to 61.8 Mn T. This implies a decline by 2.4 Mn T from a year ago compared to an uninterrupted increase during the preceding nine years when the average annual growth reached 3.8 Mn T. 

This setback is clearly reflected in a slowdown in the growth of world consumption of 17 oils and fats to an estimated 3.3 Mn T in Jan/Dec 2025 (versus 7.9 Mn T in 2024), implying a sizable increase in non-energy uses, primarily for food...

Domestic Palm Oil Usage Set to Reach a New High in 2025

Booming biodiesel production is seen raising total Indonesian palm oil use to a record 23.1 Mn T in calendar year 2025, thus more than tripling within 10 years....

Temporary Elimination of Export Taxes Boosting Farmer Selling

Argentine farmers are now selling old-crop soybeans and grains aggressively after the government has temporarily eliminated export taxes, which has significantly raised domestic prices, particularly of soybeans.....

The latest developments in Argentina will make it possible for China to cover its soybean import requirements in South America at least until December. Argentine export estimates will have to be raised for the next few months, and we now consider it possible that they will reach...

Many Vagaries on Supply and Demand Side

Growth in World Production of Soya Meal to Slow in 2025/26

However, output of 11 other oilmeals is seen recovering by 2.2 Mn T, keeping oilmeal prices under pressure ....

We expect world production of soya meal to reach a new high of 285.3 Mn T (vs. 280.4 Mn T a year earlier), implying a slowdown of the year-on-year growth rate to 4.9 Mn T compared to 19.0 and 12.7 Mn T in the preceding two seasons....World oilmeal demand prospects for 2025/26 are still highly uncertain and we consider the recent uptrend in soya meal prices in the cash and futures markets to be only temporary.... More details in the MONTHLY....

Ample World Supplies of Soybeans in 2025/26

Upward revisions in rapeseed & canola production and Chinese import restrictions have put prices under pressure on the world market....
Substantial year-on-year declines are in prospect for US soybean exports in October and the following months, considering that there are no Chinese purchases in the books and that higher shipments to the rest of the world can only partly offset the loss of China.... Instead, China will satisfy most of its import requirements in South Amercia in the first 4 months of the 2025/26 season...