Sunflower Oil Prices Have Started to Ease

The transition from the old crop to the new crop has been very difficult this year and is till ongoing, as crushings are slow to increase seasonally, mainly due to delayed harvesting and reserved farmer selling......But an easing price trend has now become more obvious for Nov/Dec and the deferred positions. There is more downward potential, in our opinion, for early 2026, if current expectations of sharply increasing Argentine production and export supplies materialize....

Argentine sunflower oil is currently offered at price discounts to the Black Sea origins. With production and export supplies seen rising sharply in coming months ....More details in the WEEKLY...

No US Soybean Imports in Sep/Dec?

Crushers in China can apparently cover their requirements without buying US soybeans at least until  December. Soybean imports from South America are  likely to compensate the loss of US soybeans, according to our estimates. On top of that, state reserves are sufficiently high and can be reduced, if necessary.
For Sept/Dec 2025 we estimate total Chinese soybean imports at 35.6 Mn T, approximately 1.0 Mn T above a year earlier. We assume that 34.5 Mn T of that quantity will come from South America...

Global Area May Decline by 2 Mn ha

The area under soybeans will be reduced worldwide in the 2025/26 season. During the past 20 years a decline occurred only three times, i.e. in 2019/20 (down 2.1 Mn ha from a year earlier), in 2011/12 (down 0.1 Mn ha) and in 2007/08 (down 2.5 Mn ha).

Another decline in the soybean area is set to occur in 2025/26. In the northern hemisphere, farmers have already reduced soybean plantings, primarily in the USA (down 2.5 Mn ha) as well as in Ukraine, the EU and India. Plantings will also be reduced in Argentina...

Veg. Oil Imports Seen Rising in 2025/26

Based on tentative area and yield estimates, we currently expect Indian oilseed production in 2025/26 to decline slightly from the relatively high level achieved last season. Not only stocks of rapeseed but also those of soybeans have diminished during the past two seasons, additionally curtailing oilseed crushings in the upcoming season. 

Vegetable oil import requirements are tentatively estimated at a new high of 18.0 Mn T next season, an increase of 1.6 Mn T. The prospective increase of supplies in the key exporting countries will favour a recovery of Indian sunflower oil imports to 3.4–3.5 Mn T...

Canola Export Prospects Deteriorating in 2025/26

China’s announcement of a preliminary 76% import duty on Canadian canola with effect from Aug 14 has delivered a severe blow to Canadian farmers ahead of the 2025 harvest, with new-crop canola prices on the ICE (Nov position) plummeting to a 4-month low ...The latest measure, based on the preliminary results of an anti-dumping probe launched in Sept 2024, comes on top of the 100% duty on canola oil and meal, virtually closing the door to the Chinese market for Canadian canola....

Indonesian Exports of Palm Oil Gaining Momentum

Indonesian exports of crude and processed palm oils increased sharply to a multi-year high of 3.0 Mn T in June, bringing the year-on-year growth in April/June to 0.6 Mn T....

Disposals of palm oil have increased sizably in recent months, favoured by recovering production. Several large plantations reported double-digit growth rates in crude palm oil output in April/June 2025...

Argentine Soya Crush Forecast to Decline by 1-2 Mn T in Sept/March

There is a high probability of a year-on-year decline in Argentine soybean crushings in Sept/March 2025/26....One constraint is to be seen in finding a home for the prospective increase in world export supplies of soya meal.......