Indonesian Palm Oil Production and Exports Plummeting in 2024

Soybean Crushings Affected by Low Soya Meal Export Sales

Indian soybean processors are struggling with declining soya meal prices on the world market and large imports of soya oil from Argentina....We currently consider it likely that Indian soybean crushings will decline by 0.5-0.6 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2024/25 despite this year's large crop. This is based on the assumption that exports of soya meal will be limited to...

Peruvian Production Seen Rising in Nov/Jan 2024/25

Peruvian production of fish oil & meal is likely to exceed initial estimates in Nov/Jan 2024/25, following the largest catch quota for the second fishing season in four years. This favourable production outlook as well as record Chinese stocks in early October are likely to keep fish meal prices under pressure in the nearby....

Soybean Disposals Up Sharply in July/Sept

Soybean disposals increased sharply from a year earlier in July/Sept 2024, benefiting from tightening supplies of rapeseed and sunflowerseed as well as from widening price discounts....This is also reflected in rising soybean imports – a trend which we expect to continue in the full 2024/25 season...

Our analysis of soybean demand in 7 exporting countries shows substantial year-on-year increases in combined soybean crushings and net exports by...

Demand Rationing Probably Starts Already this Quarter

The season 2024/25 has started with partly massive price increases in vegetable oils as opposed to the preceding season. Ample supplies of soya oil have brought relief to consumers in recent months in view of the massive decline in world exports of palm oil. While large global soybean supplies are in prospect, soya oil can probably not offset shortages in competing vegetable oils in coming months to the extent many consumers are hoping for...

World exports of eight oils are forecast to decline by 1.3 million to a 3-year low of 89.9 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2024/25, led by reductions in sunflower oil exports from Ukraine and Russia...

Soya Meal Exports Seen Reaching a Record 79 Mn T in 2024/25

The severe decline in softseed crushings is seen changing global  production and trade flows of oilmeals in 2024/25, resulting in another above-average increase in world soya meal exports. The by far biggest increase is expected in shipments to the EU-27 to at least partly offset the looming shortage of rapeseed and sunflower meals....

World soya meal exports are now estimated to reach a record 79.2 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2024/25, up 4.4 Mn T on the year and sharply above the most recent 5-year average ... More details in the MONTHLY...

Feedstock Shortages Will Limit Biodiesel Production in 2024/25

The growth in biodiesel production and consequently also in the required feedstock volumes has become unsustainable of late. In 2024/25 the discrepancy between ambitious national biofuel targets and tightening feedstock supplies is seen widening. This dilemma can probably be solved only by a proactive downward adjustment of admixture mandates and/or an underfulfillment of them via market forces...

Admixture targets can probably not be fulfilled in the USA, Indonesia and Brazil. Growth in world production of biodiesel/HVO in 2025 will be curbed below the increase of 4.1 Mn T shaping up this year....Latest OIL WORLD estimates in the Weekly of Oct 11...