World Production of Sunflowerseed Set to Recover by 5-6 Mn T in 2025/26

World production of sunflowerseed is seen rising sharply by 5-6 Mn T in 2025/26. Our current estimate is 60.6 Mn T on the assumption of generally favourable weather conditions from now on. Farmers have expanded sunflower plantings in many countries at the expense of other crops, bringing the total area to a new high of of 31.2 Mn ha worldwide in 2025/26, 1.3 Mn ha above a year earlier and 3.1 Mn ha higher than in 2020/21......

The global supply & demand balance of sunflower oil will remain comparatively tight in 2025/26. In our tentative forecast we assume that world consumption of sunflower oil will not increase and remain close to the reduced level ....More details in the WEEKLY...

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Political intervention, viz. escalating trade conflicts and biofuel policies, has been the key feature in the global markets of oilseeds, oils & fats and oilmeals in recent months, making a difficult market even more complex and keeping volatility high. 
                                
The OIL WORLD price index of eight edible oils peaked this season already in November and has again been on a downtrend since early April. The bullishness initially emanating from declining production of sunflower oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil has been eased of late by declining biodiesel/HVO production, primarily in the USA, the EU-27, Argentina and China, which lowered feedstock requirements.

Low mineral oil prices have hurt the competitiveness of vegetable oil-based biofuel in recent months. Furthermore, the vagaries of US biofuel policies affected feedstock demand domestically and abroad. Less biofuel has been produced for export to the USA in the EU, Singapore and China in recent months. It must be assumed that eroding exports of UCO from China to the USA have partly contributed to the pronounced decline of Chinese palm oil consumption so far this season.

For producers and consumers alike the global markets will again provide great challenges and opportunities this year. To take advantage of them you require the independent and competent information and forecasts we are providing in this unique compendium.

In the 2025 issue of the OIL WORLD ANNUAL we analyse all the important price-making factors and publish our first 2025/26 projections for each of the 10 oilseeds, 17 oils & fats and 12 oilmeals.
The ANNUAL focusses also on demand for vegetable oils and animal fats  as a feedstock for biofuel production and its impact on the total global demand, trade and prices of oils and fats as well as the repercussions on oilseeds and oilmeals. This includes world production of biodiesel (with breakdown by country) as well as biodiesel imports and exports of major countries. More details in the just released OIL WORLD Annual 2025....

Only Marginal Consumption Growth Shaping Up in 2024/25

Low mineral oil prices have hurt the competitiveness of vegetable oil-based biofuel in recent months. Furthermore, the vagaries of US biofuel policies affected feedstock demand domestically and abroad. Less biofuel has been produced for export to the USA in the EU, Singapore and China in recent months...

These developments are seen curbing the growth of total world consumption of eight major vegetable oils to only 0.6 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2024/25, compared to 8.7 Mn T last season...

Upward Revision in World Stocks of Soybeans

There is increasing concern among US soybean producers and exporters about lack of foreign demand next season. Competition from South America will be unprecedented and China will cover a much larger portion of its soybean import requirements in South America...

Soybean production is exceeding expectations in 2024/25 and is now expected to reach 418.4 Mn T, 1.9 Mn T above a month earlier and 23.1 Mn T above the previous record achieved last season. At the same time, world crushings of soybeans will not come up to earlier expectations....

EU Imports to Remain Elevated in 2025/26

EU rapeseed production is set to recover sizeably in 2025, following larger than initially expected plantings and assuming a recovery in average yields from last year’s unusually low levels in most key production  regions...

However, old-crop stocks as of end-June are still likely to fall to or even below 0.9 Mn T (vs. 1.53 Mn T a year earlier), keeping EU import demand elevated in 2025/26....First tentative estimates of the EU rapeseed balance for 2025/26 in the WEEKLY...

Linseed Prices Rallying

Diminishing old-crop supplies sparked a rally in linseed prices in the past 8 weeks, defying the setback in most other commodities. The shortage is particularly severe in the EU, where crushers are faced both with depleted export supplies in Kazakhstan and Canada and trade restrictions on imports from Russia.....

In contrast to the aggravating shortage in the EU, Chinese crushers apparently took advantage of the relatively low linseed prices in Russia to replenish stocks....

Indian Castor Crop Lower Than Expected

The significant deterioration of Indian castorseed crop prospects (see OIL WORLD Weekly of April 17) has been confirmed....Poor results in the key producing state of Gujarat are primarily attributable to prolonged heat and dryness since February, hurting yields and curbing the number of harvest rounds...

Indian castor oil export prices have appreciated by 2% to US-$/T 1525 since last week and are still having sizeable upward potential ....