OIL WORLD

Rapeseed Crush Seen Reaching New Highs in 2026/27

The European rapeseed market is currently in transition from diminishing old-crop supplies to a rather abundant new-crop supply outlook. Record winter rapeseed plantings and sufficient moisture supplies across most major producing regions have set the stage for a further increase in EU rapeseed production to an estimated 21.0 Mn T this year, a new high and 0.4 Mn T above the comparatively large crop harvested in 2025. 

Stocks at the end of June are also likely to exceed the year-ago level by 0.2-0.3 Mn T, additionally raising EU rapeseed supplies at the start of the 2026/27 season. However, this rather ample outlook contrasts with the increasing risk of tightening world export supplies next season...

Growth in Veg. Oil Consumption Slowing Down this Season

The rather sluggish growth of vegetable oil consumption registered in India so far this season will probably be decimated further by the repercussions of the Iran war. High  energy prices are limiting expenses for food and are apparently dampening the turnover in the food service sector.

Consumption of the eight major vegetable oils in India may increase by only 0.2–0.3 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2025/26, which compares to an average annual increase of 1.1 Mn T in the preceding four seasons. This may imply a stagnation or perhaps even a slight decline of the average per capita consumption. The demand losses shaping up in the food sector may be partly offset by a recovery of Indian  biodiesel production...

Iran War Is Having Severe Repercussions on Veg. Oil Markets

Sunseed Crushings Seen Rising in Jan/Aug 2026

Crushings of sunflowerseed are picking up in the Black Sea region on the back of large arrivals of sunflowerseed from Argentina. Sunflowerseed crushings in the EU-27 are seen rising from a year earlier in the second half of this season, reversing the decline registered in Aug/Jan 2025/26...

Global Area under Sunseed and Rapeseed to Rise Further in 2026/27

High oil-yielding oilseeds have gained attractiveness vis-a-vis grains  and partly also versus soybeans as well as peas and lentils. The strength of vegetable oil prices and the weakness in oilmeals and feed grains have created wider than usual price premiums of high oil-yielding oilseeds....

An above-average increase occurred in the global area of sunflowerseed and rapeseed & canola in 2025/26, with the harvested area reaching 73.4 Mn ha (up 3.9 Mn ha from a year earlier) and a further sizeable expansion is shaping in 2026/27. First tentative production estimates for the two softseeds in 2026/27 in the WEEKLY....

Production Losses in EU

Production of olive oil has not come up to expectations in several parts of Europe in 2025/26 and declined significantly compared to the preceding season. The deteriorating production outlook triggered a significant price appreciation in recent months.....

We have reduced our estimate of total olive oil output in the EU-27 to 2.0 Mn T for 2025/26, 0.2 Mn T less than produced a year ago and 0.4 Mn T below the record achieved in 2021/22....The production losses in Europe are partly offset by further increasing production in North Africa to record levels this season....

Import Dependence Still High Despite Slowdown of Consumption Growth

Vegetable oil imports may increase by 1.0 Mn T this season. Shift from soya to palm oil this quarter.

Indian vegetable oil imports declined by 0.7 Mn T in Jan/Dec 2025, partly attributable to a pronounced increase of domestic production, primarily of rapeseed oil. However, the decline of imports also resulted in a pronounced reduction of domestic vegetable oil stocks....Imports of vegetable oils are expected to increase sizably above the low year-ago level in the current quarter....