OIL WORLD

Production Losses in EU

Production of olive oil has not come up to expectations in several parts of Europe in 2025/26 and declined significantly compared to the preceding season. The deteriorating production outlook triggered a significant price appreciation in recent months.....

We have reduced our estimate of total olive oil output in the EU-27 to 2.0 Mn T for 2025/26, 0.2 Mn T less than produced a year ago and 0.4 Mn T below the record achieved in 2021/22....The production losses in Europe are partly offset by further increasing production in North Africa to record levels this season....

Prospective Demand From US Biodiesel Sector Seen Tipping the Scale Towards Tightening Veg. Oil Supplies

The relatively large increases in global output of veg. oils in Oct/Dec 2025 and probably also in Jan/March 2026 may be followed by only minor production growth in April/Sept 2026, reflecting mainly the expected setback in key palm oil producing countries.....

The consumption of the eight major vegetable oils is tentatively forecast to increase by 6.8 Mn T this season, thereof 1.8 Mn T in the USA....Demand for vegetable oils from biofuel producers is a key variable to watch not only in the USA, but also in Indonesia and Brazil....Latest OIL WORLD supply and demand estimates in the MONTHLY...

Meal Supplies Seen Staying Ample Owing to Large Soybean Crops and Rising Crushings

The livestock and feed industries are currently closely monitoring weather developments in South America. With a significant portion of crops still vulnerable to damage from detrimental weather, there are still big variations in crop estimates.....

Soybean imports and crushings are booming in many countries this season, primarily in North Africa and Asia. This development has already curbed import demand for soya meal in a number of countries, raising the pressure on soybean processors in North and South America to find new markets....More details in the MONTHLY....

Import Dependence Still High Despite Slowdown of Consumption Growth

Vegetable oil imports may increase by 1.0 Mn T this season. Shift from soya to palm oil this quarter.

Indian vegetable oil imports declined by 0.7 Mn T in Jan/Dec 2025, partly attributable to a pronounced increase of domestic production, primarily of rapeseed oil. However, the decline of imports also resulted in a pronounced reduction of domestic vegetable oil stocks....Imports of vegetable oils are expected to increase sizably above the low year-ago level in the current quarter....

Accelerating Oilseed Plantings Worldwide in Response to Dwindling Growth in Palm Oil

Palm oil has lost its growth potential. The average annual growth in world production has virtually halved in recent years and is set to narrow further if Indonesian production continues to decline in 2027 and remains depressed in 2028.... 

During most of the past 5 years farmers worldwide reacted to the appreciating prices caused by the slowing-down of the production growth in palm oil and stepped up oilseed plantings....A closer analysis with breakdown by country reveals that most of the growth in the oilseed area occurred in Brazil, followed by Russia, Kazakhstan, Argentina, Australia and the European Union.... 

Soybean Crush and Soya Meal Consumption Up Sharply in Oct/Dec

Soybean crushings and domestic consumption of soya meal continued to increase sharply in Oct/Dec 2025, mainly because of rising demand from the pig industry. In contrast, domestic consumption of vegetable oils was rather sluggish. That of soya oil increased only moderately, despite reduced production of rapeseed oil ...More details in the WEEKLY...

 

Price Erosion Boosted World Usage of Soya Meal in 2025

Nearby prices currently supported by seasonally low Argentine crushings but further price setback required to keep demand growth elevated in the course of 2026

Seasonally declining Argentine soybean crushings as well as the recovery in soybean prices on the CBOT following the resumption of Chinese purchases of US soybeans pushed soya meal prices in the cash and futures markets higher in recent weeks. However, we consider the price strength in the nearby position to be only temporary and expect Argentine soya meal export prices to decline to or even below .... More details in the MONTHLY....